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Bill B's avatar

We must always use history to inform the odds of future directions. Is paradigm shifting energy use or new technologies that different from previous inflection points in human history? How did we react? What were the positive and negative outcomes? What is the scorecard for past civilizations? How does the scale of a global economy change patterns and outcomes now?

Modernity creates a misconception that the human experience is a never ending trend line up. Not true. It looks more like the economic boom and bust cycle of capitalism. For that matter, any economic construct.

Techno optimism counterintuitively accelerates collapse in some cases because it allows us to ignore the limits and realities of our world, and more importantly, us humans.

May sound pessimistic, but a study of similar civilizational collapse gives many clues to the fate of modernity.

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Cary's avatar

Like the other commenters, I want to believe in a utopia. At the same time, the solarpunkers around today are not going to get us to their particular utopia any time soon. Many of them are focused on cool tech ideas to solve our problems and blind to the fact that the problems we face are sociological and cultural. Worse still, in addition to the skipping over all the problems you mentioned, their tech solutions are often quite poorly thought out, ignoring economics, environmental impacts, basic psychology, and more.

Anyhow, I voted no. And I agree that it'll take something pretty catastrophic to break things open enough to create the possibility for it. In that sense, part of my hopes Trump, Musk, et al. really do totally wreck things. Then at least all we'd have to do is win the race to design a better society. No small order, but compared to the above, it at least seems tractable with the right planning.

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